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The middle age crisis of paper & plastic, packaging and

Back to listSource:Guangzhou ZhonghuiDate of issue 2021-08-02 13:20 Browse:

A shares fell sharply in a row, attracting the attention of the whole society from the flood in Henan. What is more frightening is that a middle-aged crisis in the packaging and printing industry is coming quietly!


The recent stock market is quite like the current extreme weather. The first rain comes one after another. Without a chance to breathe, many old investors who speculate in the short term and copy the bottom have been harvested. As of today's close, the Shanghai index fell 2.49% to 3381.18 points, the Shenzhen composite index fell 3.67% to 14093.64 points, and the gem index fell 4.11% to 3232.84 points. The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded one trillion yuan for the fifth consecutive trading day.


In short, I vaguely feel that a stock disaster similar to 2008 or 2015 has come. So, what good or bad will this major capital market adjustment bring to the packaging and printing industry? Bao Xiaobian might as well make a bold guess. This round of major adjustment will expose the problems faced by the packaging and printing industry, especially for the leaders of various subdivided industries, but innovative small and medium-sized enterprises may usher in a tuyere.


In short, the crisis ridden packaging and printing industry chain is ushering in a middle-aged crisis. How to realize the butterfly change and highlight the encirclement is a problem that all people in the packaging and printing industry need to think about at present.


First, let's talk about the upstream industry. As the paper and plastic film industry upstream of the packaging and printing industry, the past two years have really called the wind and rain. With the production capacity concentration advantage created by the national industrial policy and environmental protection policy, not only the shipping price has risen sharply, but also the stock has been built continuously. However, behind the doubling of the upstream annual profit margin is the mess of the waist packaging and printing industry.


However, on the whole, the good days of the upstream industry may be over.


Looking back on the market conditions of the paper and plastic film industry during the stock market disaster in 2008 and 2015, we will find that the stock market is surprisingly consistent with the trend of paper price.


The reason is very simple. The stock market is a barometer of the economy. There is not so much liquidity in the market, so consumption is not good; When consumption is bad, the price of paper will fall.


Another bad sign is that the global central bank is desperately expanding the domestic upstream raw material industry and facing the risk of tight capital chain when it rapidly tightens the currency. Considering that the upstream industry of packaging and printing is the industry with the least state-owned attribute, these raw material giants will be suppressed under the condition of internal economic volume and national fairness.


Ren Zeping made a very profound comment on this:


What is the general trend? It is to reduce the profits and monopolies of real estate, finance, education and the Internet, as well as the resulting long-term squeeze and cost on people's livelihood and the real economy, and vigorously develop manufacturing, hard technology, the real economy, new energy and capital markets. A great change not seen in a century is also a great opportunity not seen in a century. It is crucial to see this general trend clearly. Every enterprise and everyone is the product of the times.


In the packaging and printing industry at the waist, what will happen next? Let's first look at several groups of data:


Just in the first and middle of July, 11 key enterprises completed 806000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 33%. Among them, the production of passenger cars decreased by 31.2% year-on-year; Commercial vehicle production decreased by 41.3% year-on-year. When the real estate basically loses the attribute of "reflecting the real purchasing power of the people", the automobile market is probably the best mirror.


This sign clearly tells us that when the export dividend brought by the epidemic gradually disappears, all walks of life will fall back into fierce stock competition, and many packaging and printing enterprises will face painful deflation or stagflation. I'm afraid it's difficult for some enterprises to get out of this middle-aged crisis. We should do and cherish it.


One thing may need to be reminded. In the past few years, with the help of capital, some leading enterprises in the packaging and printing industry are rapidly expanding their production capacity, which has further exacerbated the internal volume of the industry, and a large number of enterprises are facing the dilemma of having nothing to do. This not only wastes a lot of resources, but also increases the factors of social instability.


In this case, the state will tend to protect vulnerable small and medium-sized packaging and printing enterprises. Therefore, this wave of stock market adjustment has actually played a decisive role in the listed packaging and printing enterprises. The adjustment of the stock market is likely to temporarily curb the capacity expansion momentum of leading enterprises in various fields.


On the contrary, the state will strongly support some innovative enterprises and encourage them to grow into small giants in various segments. Liu He, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and vice premier of the State Council, attended and spoke by video at the national "specialized, special and new" SME Summit Forum held in Changsha today. Liu He pointed out that general secretary Xi Jinping attached great importance to small and medium-sized enterprises, and made a series of important instructions for the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, emphasizing that "small and medium-sized enterprises can do great things". Liu he said that if small and medium-sized enterprises are good, China's economy will be good. Dynamic small and medium-sized enterprises and diversified and differentiated economic ecology are the most important guarantee for China's economic resilience“ The soul of "specialization and innovation" is innovation.


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